Basking In The Shadows Of The Ottoman Era

This critical geopolitical analysis examines the foreign policy trajectory of Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, documenting a pattern of regional expansion that bears significant structural similarities to Ottoman imperial strategies.

The paper maps Turkey's military installations and presence across the Balkans, the Middle East, the Caucasus and North Africa, identifying a coherent strategic architecture that extends Turkish influence far beyond its recognised borders and well beyond the scope of its NATO obligations.

Cultural and religious instruments of influence are examined in parallel — including the operations of the Diyanet (the Turkish Presidency of Religious Affairs), the network of Turkish schools and cultural centres, and the systematic use of TRT World and other state media platforms to project a particular narrative of Turkish leadership in the Muslim world.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is examined as a case study in Turkish proxy warfare, illustrating how Ankara deployed Bayraktar drones, Syrian mercenaries and intelligence assets to decisively shape the outcome of a conflict formally between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The paper raises pointed questions about Turkey's reliability as a NATO partner, arguing that Ankara's strategic ambiguity — simultaneously maintaining ties with Russia, purchasing S-400 systems, and engaging in transactional relationships with actors antithetical to Western interests — represents a structural challenge to the coherence of the Alliance.

The analysis concludes by recommending that European institutions develop a more sophisticated and frank assessment of Turkey's regional ambitions, moving beyond the diplomatic conventions that have obscured the degree to which Ankara's interests have diverged from those of its formal allies.